According to HDB’s quarterly data published on January 24, the resale prices for HDB flats increased by 2.6% in the fourth quarter of 2024. This marks the 19th consecutive quarter of price growth in the resale market. The cumulative price increase for the entire year of 2024 was 9.7%. This is almost double the 4.9% increase in prices seen in 2023.
While the increase in resale prices last quarter was slightly lower compared to the previous quarter’s 2.7% increase, it is still significant. Mohan Sandrasegeran, head of research and data analytics at SRI, attributes the strong growth in resale prices throughout 2024 to the limited supply of flats reaching their Minimum Occupation Period (MOP).
Sandrasegeran also notes that buyers have shown a preference for newer flats and larger flat types such as five-room and executive units, which cater to the needs of growing families. This has put upward pressure on prices in the resale market.
Out of all the flat types in the HDB resale market, five-room flats saw the highest increase in prices in the fourth quarter of 2024. The average price for five-room flats rose by 2.2% to $754,097. Similarly, the resale prices for four-room flats also increased by 2.2% to $652,544.
In terms of location, the Central Area saw the highest price increase of 25.6% in the fourth quarter, followed by Toa Payoh (12.1%), Tampines (6.9%), Bishan (6.7%), and Bedok (6.1%). According to Christine Sun, chief researcher and strategist at OrangeTee Group, more than 90% of the transactions in the million-dollar HDB resale market were in mature estates. Kallang/Whampoa recorded the highest number of million-dollar flats sold (156 units), followed by Toa Payoh (144 units) and Bukit Merah (135 units).
However, there was a slowdown in transaction volume towards the end of the year. Resale transactions fell by 21.1% from the previous quarter, with only 6,424 units sold in the fourth quarter of 2024. This was likely due to seasonal factors such as the year-end holiday and festive season. Lower interest rates may have also encouraged some buyers to consider the private residential or Executive Condominium (EC) market. Additionally, some buyers may have chosen to ballot for a flat in the October Build-to-Order (BTO) exercise, which saw a record 15 projects with 8,573 flats launched.
Despite the fourth quarter’s dip in transaction volume, the overall resale transaction volume for 2024 increased by 8.4% from the previous year, with a total of 28,986 units sold. This is the highest number of resale transactions since 2021, when 31,017 flats were sold.
According to transaction data from Huttons Asia, the top five most popular HDB towns among buyers in 2024 were Sengkang, Woodlands, Punggol, Tampines, and Yishun. These estates accounted for 35.9% of all HDB resales in 2024.
Looking ahead, only 6,976 flats are expected to reach their Minimum Occupation Period (MOP) in 2025, a 41.6% decrease compared to the previous year. This is due to the lower number of BTO flats completed in 2020 during the Covid-19 pandemic. HDB plans to launch over 25,000 new flats in 2025, with 19,600 BTO flats and more than 5,500 flats under the Sale of Balance Flats (SBF) exercise.
Of the 19,600 BTO flats planned for launch, about 3,800 will be designated as Shorter Waiting Time (SWT) flats, with wait times of less than three years. Sandrasegeran predicts that resale prices in the HDB market for 2025 could increase by 3.5% to 5.5%, with transactions ranging between 26,000 and 27,000. However, Huttons’ Lee projects a more optimistic price increase of 5% to 8% for the year.
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